Technical Analysis:
USOIL is in very bullish uptrend and we might see price reaching towrds 83-84 levels soon. We have already got MSS on 1H tf to the upside and also on 15min tf.
Fundamentals:
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moderately higher. Today's slump in the dollar index to a 1-month low is bullish for energy prices. Crude also has carryover support from Wednesday when the EIA reported that weekly US crude inventories unexpectedly declined. Gains in crude prices are limited after the International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly report showed global oil demand growth slowed in Q2.
Today's monthly report from the IEA was bearish for crude as the report said global crude consumption in Q2 rose by +710,000 bpd, the smallest increase since late 2022 as Chinese crude demand slipped into a contraction.
A report late Wednesday from JPMorgan Chase shows stronger global oil demand that is bullish for crude prices as the report said global oil demand averaged 103.6 million bpd in the month-to-date through July 6, rising by +1.7 million bpd from a year ago. The report cites a rebound in US and Chinese air travel, as well as weather-related increases in fuel oil and gasoil use in the Middle East.
Reduced crude exports from Russia are limiting global oil supplies and are supporting oil prices. According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia's crude exports in the week to July 7 fell by -990,000 bpd to 2.67 million bpd, the lowest in over five months.
Weakness in crude demand in China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, is bearish for oil prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that in the week ending June 28, only 86 global oil tankers indicated China as their next destination in the coming three months, five fewer than the prior week and the lowest weekly tally since August of 2022.
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