TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the daily chart, the USDCAD has made a significant downward break below the previous upward trendline, which was amplified by the disappointing Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The pair experienced a rebound recently, finding support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and is now approaching the breached trendline. This situation prompts the question of whether we might witness a classic "break and retest" pattern. From a risk management perspective, buyers could potentially achieve a more favorable risk-to-reward setup if they wait for a retest of the major blue trendline. On the 4-hour chart, we can observe the price nearing a substantial resistance level around 1.3740. This area coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average, creating a confluence of resistance factors. It's expected that sellers may intervene at this point, establishing a clear risk level just above the resistance to position themselves for a decline toward the major blue trendline. Turning to the 1-hour chart, the current bullish momentum is marked by the presence of a minor upward trendline. Sellers who are more risk-averse may prefer to wait for a confirmed break below this trendline before entering their positions, positioning for a move towards the major trendline. Conversely, buyers will be looking for a breakout above the broken trendline to reinforce their bullish positions, while sellers may attempt another push down when the price reaches this level.
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