TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the 4-hour chart euro has been rejected from the 4 hr supply zone at 1.07324 at the news the price has reversed and started falling still the basis points has not been changed. On the 1-hour chart has moved to a new low for the day, and in the process, the price has moved below the 100-hour moving average 1.06748. Breaking below the 100-hour moving average will now set that level as a resistance level. The bias is now tilted more to the downside. On the downside, the next target comes near the 1.0655 level followed by 1.0644 and the swing low from September at 1.06312. Remember that the low was near the May 31 low price at 1.0635. Moving below 1.06312 will next target the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low. A level comes in at 1.0610. Move below that level and the sellers increase their bias control.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The dollar is moving lower head of the FOMC rate decision. The Fed is largely expected to keep rates unchanged. The focus will be on what they feel going forward. The odds of a November hike heart 30% while a December hike are 40%. So the market is pricing in at least a chance of a hike between now and the end of the year. The dot.pot from June had the Fed hiking one more time in 2023. That bias tilt is likely to remain. The question will be "Will the Fed increase the end of year for 2024?". In the June dot plot, the Fed projection had the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points in 2024 from 5.6% to 4.6%. That might be raised in this meetings projections.
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