TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the daily chart market has been moved up since 61.80 of the fibonacci and might come down to 70.5 of the fibonacci once it gets aligned bearish to the overall daily structure. On the 4 hourly yesterday the price has taken another high and as we can see it has still not mitigated which means touched the 4 hr supply zone at 1935.030. so looking at the current structure there is still no sign of weakness. Drawing a Fibonacci on the recent swing on 1901.044 to 1934.4 strong levels can be the 32.80% of the retracement level at 1923.6 is also a go support and resistance level.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table.The US CPI this week came in line with expectations, so the market’s pricing remained roughly the same. The labour market displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid.Last week the ISM Services PMI and Jobless Claims surprised to the upside, which point to a resilient economy overall. Yesterday, we got yet another beat in Jobless Claims followed by strong Retail Sales and PPI data. The Fed members are leaning more towards a pause in September and the next decision will still be dictated by the economic data. The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike at the September meeting and there’s just a 33% chance of a hike in November, although that can change if the data keeps on running hot.
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