Market Analysis of Gold on Thursday 05 August 2021
The US ADP data announced on Wednesday showed that the employment population grew by only 330,000, which was far below expectations of 695,000. After the data was announced, U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and the yield of U.S. Treasury fell, and gold rose rapidly. However, the situation quickly reversed, because the subsequent ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 64.1, better than expected, and the Fed’s No. 2 Clarida said that the interest rate hike in 2023 is in line with the new framework, and the conditions for a possible interest rate hike can be fulfilled in 2022. The U.S. index rebounded sharply by nearly 50 points, and gold dropped by $25 to $1806.43/ounce.
From a technical point of view, the daily candle closed with a long upper shadow. Gold tested a short-term high but failed and dropped. H4 graph showed a downward fluctuation of gold. Overall prioritise Sell on high position. Consider the support zone and resistance zone, the deciding point whether to buy or sell is near 1806.
Resistance：1816-1823-1832
Support：1806-1798-1790
Market Analysis of Crude Oil on Thursday 05 August 2021
Crude oil fell sharply on Wednesday. US EIA data showed that as of the week of July 30, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.627 million barrels to 439.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.8%, the largest increase since March 5. Previously it was expected to fall by 3 million barrels, and the previous value was a drop of 4.089 million barrels. After the data was announced, crude oil prices fell rapidly in a short-term. The mutated virus raging around the world recently suppressed economic growth expectations and is not conducive to the recovery of demand in the crude oil market.
From technical perspective, the daily candles close by three consecutive bearish candles. The indicators show bearish signal and put pressure on crude oil in the short-term. H4 graph forms bottom ladder. MACD volume is accelerating downward, MA forms Death Cross on the high position and there is no sign of stabilization. Overall, prioritise Sell on the high position. The chart below is showing the key point and the estimated trend, the deciding point whether to buy or sell is near 67.50.
Resistance：68.70-69.30-70.00
Support：67.50-66.80-66.00
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