Market Analysis of Gold on Monday 19 July 2021
On Monday Asian session, gold was slightly bullish and traded near 1814. Last Friday, gold prices once again staged Black Friday, and plummeted US$15 intraday, down nearly 1%, mainly due to unexpected growth in retail sales, which boosted the US dollar index. However, the decline in consumer confidence index and stock market limited the decline in gold prices. This week’s focus is on the European Central Bank interest rate decision, PMI Markit Manufacturing and preliminary data of unemployment claims. From a technical point of view, gold's daily candle is bearish and forms a doji pattern which show is a bearish signal. The H4 chart show a breakthrough of the uptrend channel, indicators are showing bearish signs. Focus on the support level at around 1795-1800. On the 1-hour chart, the candle formed a head and shoulder pattern which broke the support at 1820. Overall, prioritise sell at high prices within the fluctuation zone. Consider the support zone and resistance zone, the deciding point whether to buy or sell is near 1820
Resistance：1820-1827-1834
Support：1808-1800-1795
Market Analysis of Crude Oil on Monday 19 July 2021
On Monday Asia session, crude oil fell sharply mainly due to the official announcement of OPEC+ saying that the production cut agreement reached in April last year will be postponed to the end of next year. From August, the overall production capacity will increase by 400,000 barrels per day every month until the existing 5.8 million barrels per day production reduction quota is fully covered, everything will be restored in September next year. OPEC+ plans to completely cancel the 5.8 million barrels per day production cut by September 2022. The agreement will ease the imminent supply tensions and reduce the risk of rising oil prices.
From technical point of view, crude oil’s weekly candles shows signs of peaking. The daily candles shows an accelerated downward trend. H4 graph shows that MA formed bearish divergence for a long period of time, and all the indicators are bearish. Overall, prioritise Sell on the fluctuation zone. The chart below is showing the key point and the estimated trend, the deciding point whether to buy or sell is near 70.00. There might be acceleration on the downward trend.
Resistance：71.10-72.00-73.00
Support：70.00-69.00-67.00
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