RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

40

RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index measures Americans' opinions and outlooks on the economy. The index is based on a nationwide survey of 1300 adults and evaluates six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, confidence in federal economic policies. Reading above 50 indicates optimism, and below 50 indicates pessimism.

Redbook YoY

The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce. Redbook compiles the Index by collecting and interpreting performance estimates from retailers. The Index and its sub-groups are sales-weighted aggregates of these estimates. Weeks are retail weeks (Sunday to Saturday), and equally weighted within the month.

Balance of Trade

2970000000

Between 1980 and 2008, Canada recorded a positive trade balance every year, with an expectation of 1991 and 1992. From 2009 onwards, the trade balance shifted to a deficit. In 2021, it switched again to a trade surplus, with energy products making the largest share of exports. The United States remains the country's biggest trading partner.

Building Permits MoM

2.3%

In Canada, building permits refer to the value of permits issued for new buildings, alterations, additions, and renovations that includes expenditures on materials, labor, profit, and overheads. The value is based on a survey of 2,400 municipalities, representing 95% of the country's population. Building permits provide an early indication of construction activity in Canada but the issuance of a permit doesn't guarantee that construction is imminent.

Exports

65980000000

Exports account for more than 30 percent of the Canadian GDP. The biggest export products are energy (22%of total), crude oil and crude bitumen (14%), cars and parts (19%), and consumer goods (12%). The US is by far the largest destination for Canadian products (76 percent of total exports), followed by China (4.5 percent) and the United Kingdom (2.6 percent).

Imports

63010000000

Canada imports mainly consumer goods (19% of total), cars and parts (23%), and energy products (7%). Canada's major import partners are the US (49 percent of total imports), China (14 percent), Mexico (5.5 percent), and Germany (3.1 percent).

Exports

258800000000

The United States is the world's third biggest exporter, yet exports account only for 10 percent of GDP. In 2022, the main exports were industrial supplies (38 percent of the total), capital goods (29 percent), consumer goods (14 percent), automotive vehicles (8 percent), and food, feeds, and beverages (8 percent). Main export partners were Canada (18 percent of total exports), Mexico (16 percent), China (7 percent), Japan (4.5 percent), the United Kingdom (4 percent), and Germany (3.5 percent).

Imports

323000000000

The United States is the world's second-biggest importer. In 2022, the main imports were consumer goods (27 percent), capital goods (26 percent), and industrial supplies (25 percent) followed by automotive vehicles, parts and engines (12 percent), and foods, feeds and beverages (6 percent). Shipments from China represented 17 percent of the total imports followed by Mexico (14 percent), Canada (13 percent), Japan (4.5 percent), and Germany (4.5 percent).

Balance of Trade

-64300000000

The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976 due to high imports of oil and consumer products. In 2022, the biggest trade deficits are recorded with China, Mexico, Vietnam, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Ireland, and the biggest trade surpluses with the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Brazil, Singapore, Australia, and United Kingdom. Canada is the top trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of total trade, followed by Mexico (14 percent) and China (13 percent).

Interest Rate Decision

5.75%

In Poland interest rates decisions are taken by the National Bank of Poland (Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP). The official interest rate is the Reference Rate.

Total New Vehicle Sales

43281

In South Africa, total vehicle sales measure the total number of vehicles sold including buses and heavy vehicles in the reported month.

Core Inflation Rate YoY

5.3%

In Mexico, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes some volatile price items.

Core Inflation Rate MoM

0.26%

Inflation Rate MoM

0.64%

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Inflation Rate YoY

4.32%

In Mexico, the most important categories in the CPI basket are Nonfood Goods (19.7 percent of the total weight); Housing (18.7 percent) and Other Services (18.4 percent). Food, Beverages and Tobacco account for 14.8 percent and Energy for 9.5 percent. Others include: Products subsidized by the government (5.3 percent); Education (5.1 percent); Meat and Eggs (4.8 percent) and Fruits and Vegetables (3.7 percent). The CPI index has a base of 100 as of December of 2010. The national index tracks 46 large, medium and small cities.

Auto Exports YoY

21.7%

In Mexico, auto exports refers to total exports of vehicles.

Auto Production YoY

18.1%

In Mexico, Car Production refers to total production of vehicles.

Inflation Rate MoM

Inflation Rate MoM measures month over month change in the price of goods and services.

Inflation Rate YoY

3%

In Luxembourg, the most important categories in the consumer price index is Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels (13 percent of total weight); Miscellaneous Goods and Services (12 percent); and Transport (10 percent). Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages account for 9 percent; Furniture, Household Goods and Maintenance for 6 percent; Clothing and Footwear for 5 percent; and Recreation and Culture for 4 percent. Restaurants and Hotels; Alcohol Beverages and Tobacco; Health; Communication; and Education account for the remaining 12 percent of total weight.

Retail Sales MoM

-0.4%

In Ireland, the Retail sales report provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific time period. In Ireland, Retail sales are seasonal, volatile and relatively important to the overall economy.

Retail Sales YoY

-0.2%

In Ireland, the year-over-year change in Retail sales compares the aggregated sales of retail goods and services during a certain month to the same month a year ago.

Industrial Production YoY

In Ireland, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and its biggest segments are: Basic pharmaceutical products and preparations (37 percent of total production); food products (18 percent); chemicals and chemical products (15 percent); computer,electronic,optical and electrical equipment (11 percent); other manufacturing, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (7 percent); and basic metals and fabricated metal products,machinery and equipment (5 percent).

Balance of Trade

-2900000000

Portugal runs regular trade deficits. Machinery and mechanical appliances are the main group of products exported and imported, and also the group with the largest trade deficit. On the other hand, the largest commercial surpluses are in the transactions of Mineral products, Cellulose pulp and paper, Clothing and Footwear. In terms of traded goods, Industrial supplies is the main traded category. Spain, France and Germany are the main external customers and suppliers of goods to Portugal, accounting for 50.9% of total exports and 52% of imports. Spain is Portugal's largest partner (weight of 26.7% in exports and 32.8% in imports). Transactions with Spain record the largest trade deficit, while the largest surplus is with France. Outside the EU, the United States is the main customer while China is the main Extra-EU supplier of goods.

NFIB Business Optimism Index

90.6

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 NFIB members. This questions include: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.

Unemployment Rate

5.8%

In Cyprus, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

Balance of Trade

-746000000

Trade is an integral part of the recent economic success of Cyprus, as the island nation falls short of being self-sufficient for food and fuel. As such, Cyprus is a net importer of fuels, raw materials, heavy machinery and transportation equipment. Cyprus mostly exports citrus fruits, cement, potatoes, clothing and pharmaceuticals. Cyprus' largest, and most important, trading partner is the European Union, which accounts for 50% of all Cypriot trade flows, followed by the Middle East, destination for 20% of exports from Cyprus. In the European Union, the UK and Greece account for the largest share of trade due to historical connections. Recent discoveries of offshore gas will likely diminish Cyprus' need for importing energy and lead to a shift in the composition of its exports.

Unemployment Rate

6.5%

In Euro Area, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

20-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

Balance of Trade

Greece reports regular trade deficits due to high volume of imports. Main imports are mineral fuels, machinery and transport equipment and chemicals. In recent years, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with Russia, Germany, China, Italy and France. Greece records trade surpluses with Turkey, Cyprus, United States, Algeria and United Arab Emirates.

6-Month Letras Auction

3.617%

12-Month Letras Auction

3.305%

Foreign Exchange Reserves

140560000000

In Czech Republic, Foreign Exchange Reserves are the foreign assets held or controlled by the country central bank. The reserves are made of gold or a specific currency. They can also be special drawing rights and marketable securities denominated in foreign currencies like treasury bills, government bonds, corporate bonds and equities and foreign currency loans.

Unemployment Rate

7.8%

In Italy, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

Balance of Trade

195600000

Austria's economy is dependent on foreign trade and closely linked to the economies of other EU countries, particularly Germany. The major export commodity in Austria is the automobile and its components, machinery and paper products. Austria imports mainly machinery and equipment, motor vehicles, chemicals, metal goods, oil and oil products and foodstuffs.

Foreign Exchange Reserves

641732000000

In Switzerland, Foreign Exchange Reserves are the foreign assets held or controlled by the country central bank. The reserves are made of gold or a specific currency. They can also be special drawing rights and marketable securities denominated in foreign currencies like treasury bills, government bonds, corporate bonds and equities and foreign currency loans.

Unemployment Rate

3.5%

In Czech Republic, the unemployment rate shows the share of unemployed people between the ages of 15 and 64 immediately able to start work versus all working people in the same demographic group.

Balance of Trade

-8597000000

Since 2004, France has been recording trade deficits due the gradual erosion of the export-oriented industry, the appreciation of the euro and the increasing dependency on imports of energy and manufactured products. The biggest trade deficits were recorded with: China, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Belgium; while the biggest trade surpluses were recorded with: the United States, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, and Switzerland.

Exports

49671000000

France exports mainly transport equipment (23 percent of total exports), of which aeronautics (12 percent) and automobile industry (10 percent). The country also exports mechanical equipment, electronic and computer equipment (19 percent); chemicals, perfumes, cosmetics (12 percent); agro-food industry products (10 percent); metallurgical and metal products (7 percent); pharmaceuticals (6 percent); textiles, leather (5 percent); rubber and plastic products, miscellaneous mineral products (4 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (3 percent); and agricultural, forestry, fishery and aquaculture products (3 percent). Main export partners are: Germany (15 percent of total exports), Spain and Italy (8 percent each), the UK, the US and Belgium (7 percent each), China and the Netherlands (4 percent each).

Imports

58268000000

France imports mainly mechanical equipment, electronic and computer equipment (21 percent of total imports); transport equipment (19 percent), of which aeronautics (11 percent) and automobile industry (7 percent); chemicals, perfumes, cosmetics (8 percent); agro-food industry products (8 percent); metallurgical and metal products (7 percent); natural hydrocarbons, other mining products, electricity (7 percent); textiles, leather (7 percent); jewelry, toys, furniture (5 percent); pharmaceuticals (5 percent); and rubber and plastic products, miscellaneous mineral products (5 percent). Main import partners are: Germany (16 percent of total imports), China (9 percent), Italy (8 percent), Belgium (7 percent), the US and Spain (6 percent each), the UK and the Netherlands (5 percent each).

Industrial Production YoY Prel

-3.2%

In Hungary, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Balance of Trade Prel

Hungary's main exports are machinery and transport equipment, consumer goods, agricultural products, chemicals, apparel, textiles, iron and steel, and wine. Hungary's major imports are machinery and equipment, other manufactures and fuels and electricity. European Union is by far its largest trading partner, accounting for about 79% of exports and 76% of imports.

Industrial Production MoM

-0.4%

In Germany, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 79 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: machinery and equipment (12 percent of total production); motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (12 percent); basic metals and fabricated metal products (10 percent); and computers, electronic and optical products and electrical equipment (10 percent). Construction accounts for 11 percent of total output; and energy production accounts for 10 percent.

Balance of Trade

17300000000

Denmark has been reporting consistent trade surpluses since 1988. Denmark is self-sufficient in energy producing oil, natural gas, wind and bio energy. Its principal exports are machinery, chemicals and food products. Denmark imports mainly machinery and equipment, raw materials and semi manufactures for industry, foodstuffs and chemicals. In 2017, the largest trade surpluses were recorded with the US, the UK, Norway, France and Russia, while the biggest trade deficits were recorded with Germany, the Netherlands, China and Sweden.

Current Account

18900000000

Current Account is the sum of the balance of trade (exports minus imports of goods and services), net factor income (such as interest and dividends) and net transfer payments (such as foreign aid).

Unemployment Rate

5.4%

In Romania, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

Balance of Trade

-2800000000

Romania exports mostly machinery and transport equipment, raw materials, and miscellaneous manufactured articles like textiles and footwear. Romania imports machinery and transport equipment, raw materials, chemicals and fuels. More than 70% of exports and imports are with other European Union members with Italy, Germany and France being the most important.

Unemployment Rate

2.1%

In Switzerland, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

Household Consumption YoY

-0.2%

In the Netherlands, Household Consumption YoY measures the year-on-year change of consumption expenditure by households. Consumption expenditure includes all voluntary expenditure on goods and services by private individuals and households. It does not include compulsory expenditure such as taxes. Services is the most important sector and accounts for 58 percent of total consumption. The biggest segments within Services are housing; financial and business services; transport, communication services; and medical services and welfare. Consumption of goods account for the remaining 42 percent, in particular durable consumer goods (15 percent) and food, beverages and tobacco (15 percent).

MAS 4-Week Bill Auction

4.15%

MAS 12-Week Bill Auction

4.05%

Consumer Confidence

123.6

In Indonesia, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures consumer’s expectations about current income and job availability against those 6 months ago, appropriate time to buy durable goods, and general economic conditions and job availability expectations in the next 6 months. The index is based on a survey of around 4600 middle up class households in major cities (those cities cover about 78 percent of GDP). Data is collected through phone interviews and direct visits. The two main components of the Index are the current economic condition index and the consumer expectation index. The CCI is computed as a net balance obtained from the difference between percentage on ’increase’ answer and percentage on ’decrease’ answer. An index above 100 indicates an improving outlook and below 100 a deteriorating outlook.

6-Month Bill Auction

-0.1402%

Building Permits MoM Prel

7.5%

In Australia, Dwelling Approvals MoM show the monthly change in the number of total dwelling units approved, including building activity carried out on existing buildings.

Retail Sales MoM Prel

-0.2%

In Australia, the Retail sales report provides an aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a specific time period. In Australia, Retail sales are seasonal, volatile and relatively important to the overall economy.

Building Permits YoY Prel

-6.1%

Private House Approvals MoM Prel

2.2%

Tokyo Core CPI YoY

2.3%

In Tokyo, the core inflation rate tracks changes in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods which excludes prices of fresh food.

Tokyo CPI YoY

In Tokyo, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Housing (26 percent of total weight) and Food (25 percent), followed by Culture and recreation (10 percent), Transportation and communication (10 percent), Fuel, light and water charges (6 percent), Miscellaneous (5 percent), Education (5 percent), Clothes and footwear (5 percent), Medical care (4 percent), and Furniture and household utensils (3 percent).

Household Spending YoY

-2.5%

In Japan, Household Spending YoY refers to the annual change of consumption expenditures (on food, housing, utilities, furniture, clothing, health, education, transport, communication, leisure activities, etc.) in real terms for two-or-more-person households including agricultural, forestry and fisheries households.

Household Spending MoM

-0.1%

In Japan, Household Spending MoM refers to the monthly change of consumption expenditures (on food, housing, utilities, furniture, clothing, health, education, transport, communication, leisure activities, etc.) in real terms for two-or-more-person households including agricultural, forestry and fisheries households.

Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY

Consumer Credit Change

5130000000

In the United States, Consumer Credit refers to outstanding credit flows extended to individuals for household, family, and other personal expenditures, excluding loans secured by real estate.

Fed Bostic Speech

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.

3-Month Bill Auction

6-Month Bill Auction