TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the daily chart, Looking at the daily chart, the USDJPY pair has successfully breached the critical 150.00 level and is maintaining its position above it without any external intervention. This could bolster buyer confidence and potentially lead to new highs. However, it's important to note some concerning bearish indicators. The divergence with the MACD is becoming more pronounced, and historically, it only takes a significant fundamental catalyst to alter the entire trend. This represents a substantial risk to be vigilant about. On the 4-hour chart, what was once a resistance level has now transformed into a support level. This level also aligns with the Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average, providing confluence. Here, buyers may consider entering the market to position for new highs and target the 152.00 level. Conversely, sellers will be looking for a price drop below this support level and the trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and anticipate a decline back to the 147.82 level. Examining the 1-hour chart, we notice a sudden spike in price without an apparent reason. It doesn't seem to be due to intervention since the impact is relatively minor. If the price breaks above the counter-trendline, buyers are likely to increase their bullish positions and continue targeting the 152.00 level. From a fundamental perspective, several factors are at play. A recent decline in Treasury yields, signs of weakness in the US labor market, and positive data in Tokyo's inflation figures may give sellers the confidence to push the pair lower. However, for this to materialize, the price would first need to fall back below the 150.00 level.
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