TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the daily chart, The USDJPY pair is currently tightly consolidated around the critical 150.00 level, with a notable hesitancy to break above it due to concerns about potential intervention. Additionally, there is a divergence with the MACD, which typically signifies waning momentum, often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this scenario, we've observed only pullbacks towards the red 21 moving average, which is serving as dynamic support for buyers. It's essentially a waiting game until a significant level is breached or a strong fundamental catalyst emerges. Shifting to the 4-hour chart, the price action seems to have formed what resembles an ascending triangle pattern, with the 150.00 resistance and the defining trendline. A breakout in either direction from this pattern typically triggers a robust and sustained move, so market participants are advised to exercise patience and await a clear signal of the most likely direction. On the 1-hour chart, we can see that the price recently rebounded off the trendline and the 149.35 support, indicating that the market lacked the conviction to break to the downside. Furthermore, positive US PMI data, released later in the day, exceeded expectations, underscoring the resilience of the US economy. Given the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping rates higher for an extended period and the Bank of Japan's current policy stance, the downside potential for the USDJPY pair appears limited unless there's a substantial deterioration in US economic data or a shift in the Bank of Japan's policy stance.
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