Technical Analysis
EURUSD have big potential to buy around 1.09224. This particular area have big resistance or rejection from the previous level higher time frame, it means lots of buyers took profit and sellers decided to involve in. Based on volume indicator the momentum for buyer is weakening. Target price at 1.11105
Fundamental Analysis
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers rose 0.2% in July 2023, seasonally adjusted, after rising 0.3% in June. The all items index rose 3.3% over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since December 2008.
The increase in the CPI in July was driven by rising prices for energy, food, and shelter. Energy prices rose 0.8% in July, led by a 15.7% increase in gasoline prices. Food prices rose 0.4% in July, after rising 0.4% in June. Shelter prices rose 0.3% in July, after rising 0.3% in June.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in July, after rising 0.2% in June. Core inflation over the past 12 months was 4.7%, the largest 12-month increase since September 1991.
The increase in inflation in July is likely to add to pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively in an effort to cool the economy and bring inflation under control.
Here are some of the key drivers of inflation in July 2023:
Rising energy prices: Gasoline prices rose 15.7% in July, the largest monthly increase since September 2005. The increase in gasoline prices was driven by a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine, which has disrupted global oil supplies, and the ongoing recovery in demand for gasoline as the economy reopens.
Rising food prices: Food prices rose 0.4% in July, after rising 0.4% in June. The increase in food prices was driven by rising prices for meat, poultry, fish, and eggs.
Rising shelter prices: Shelter prices rose 0.3% in July, after rising 0.3% in June. The increase in shelter prices was driven by rising rents and home prices.
The outlook for inflation:
The Federal Reserve expects inflation to remain elevated in the coming months, but to gradually decline over the course of the year. The Fed has raised interest rates three times so far in 2023, and is expected to continue to raise rates in an effort to cool the economy and bring inflation under control.
However, there are a number of risks to the Fed's inflation outlook. The war in Ukraine could continue to disrupt global energy supplies and drive up energy prices. The ongoing recovery in demand for goods and services could also keep inflation elevated.
If inflation does not come down as expected, the Fed may be forced to raise interest rates more aggressively, which could slow the economy and lead to a recession.
DISCLAIMER:The information on this analysis is based on research and experience, and it is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete
